By Tom O'Kelly, Senior Research Manager
Recent weeks have brought renewed threats against the UK from Putin and the Russian state following further announcements of British support for Ukraine. One purpose of this rhetoric may be to make the consequences of that support feel closer to home and, in doing so, weaken public backing for it.
But does that approach work? Does a heightened perception of risk make the British public less willing to support Ukraine?
New YouGov polling suggests the relationship between risk and support is not quite so simple.
A majority of the British public, 53%, support the UK’s latest major commitment to Ukraine, providing blueprints for advanced weapons systems so Ukraine can manufacture them itself. Twenty-five per cent oppose the proposal, while 22% are unsure.
In separate polling conducted two days later, 45% said Russia was likely to launch covert attacks against facilities in the UK connected to the war, such as drone factories. Twenty eight per cent considered this unlikely, with the same proportion unsure.
These findings cannot tell us whether the same people both support the policy and anticipate retaliation. However, they do show that widespread awareness of a credible threat does not undermine confidence in the continued support for Ukraine.
Nearly half of the UK population think some form of covert Russian attack in Britain is likely (45%). Yet support for providing Ukraine blueprints for high-end weaponry in order to manufacture its own still outweighs opposition by more than two to one (53% vs 25%).
It could be argued that some people might be more receptive to sharing blueprints because it enables Ukraine to manufacture more of its own weapons, potentially reducing the need for production at exposed facilities in Britain and therefore reducing the risk. However, I think the more likely answer is that this once again underlines the continued support that the British public has for Ukraine and that the ability to produce weapons locally would be faster and more sustainable.
One possible explanation is that people are receptive to sharing blueprints because it allows more weapons to be manufactured in Ukraine, potentially reducing the need for production at exposed facilities in Britain. The polling cannot confirm this, as respondents were not asked whether the location of production influenced their decision. Support could instead reflect a belief that Ukrainian production would be faster and more sustainable, or simply the British public’s continued commitment to supporting Ukraine.
When we take a closer look at the demographic breakdowns we can see this wider interpretation of support is emphasised further. Older adults are both the most supportive of the proposal and the most likely to recognise the threat. Among those aged 65 and over, 68% support providing the blueprints, while 58% think Russian attacks against connected facilities in Britain are likely. Older people are therefore not more supportive because they are less conscious of the risk. They appear willing to maintain that support despite recognising the associated risks.
Younger adults are less certain, but that does not translate into oposition. Half of 18 to 24 year olds support the proposal, compared with 24% who oppose it. Their most distinctive response is uncertainty. 45% cannot say whether Russian attacks are likely, while 25% are unsure whether they support providing the blueprints. The challenge among younger audiences may therefore be a lack of confidence or information rather than active resistance to supporting Ukraine.
A similar pattern appears between men and women. Men are more likely to support the proposal than women, at 63% compared with 46%. However, opposition is almost identical, at 25% among men and 23% among women. The main difference is uncertainty, with 30% of women unsure compared with 13% of men.
Political affiliation provides the clearest indication that the same threat can be interpreted in different ways. 75% of Liberal Democrat supporters back the proposal, even though 53% think attacks in Britain are likely. Among Conservatives, 62% support providing the blueprints and 55% consider attacks likely.
Reform supporters reach a different conclusion. 54% think attacks are likely, but only 40% support providing the blueprints and 44% oppose. They are the only political group in which opposition exceeds support.
Recognising the threat from Russia does not therefore lead automatically to reduced support for Ukraine. For some people, the risk may strengthen the case for helping Ukraine resist Russian aggression. For others, it may reinforce concerns that British involvement is creating greater exposure at home.
Putin’s threats may be intended to weaken public resolve by making the risks of supporting Ukraine feel more immediate. So far, that approach does not appear to have succeeded. The British public recognises that continued support may carry consequences, but a clear majority still believes Ukraine should be given the means to strengthen its own defence.